白糖期货2021年行情分析

Currency Analysis of White Sugar Futures in 2021

1. Overview

In 2021, the white sugar futures market exhibited a pattern of wide-ranging fluctuations. The domestic price of white sugar experienced a relatively stable trend, while the international sugar market showed a upward trend with fluctuations. This article will analyze the factors affecting the price of white sugar futures in 2021 and provide an outlook for the market.

2. Domestic and International Sugar Market

2.1 Domestic Sugar Price

The domestic sugar market experienced a period of stability with occasional decreases in the price of sugar. The price difference between white sugar and red dates remained relatively stable throughout the year. However, there was a significant upward trend in the price of red dates, while white sugar maintained a volatile pattern.

2.2 International Sugar Price

The international sugar market exhibited a pattern of internal weakness and external strength with a fluctuating upward trend. The ICE11 sugar futures contract showed a significant increase from a low of 14.67 cents per pound in April to a high of 20.69 cents per pound in mid-November, representing a substantial growth.

3. Factors Affecting White Sugar Futures Price

3.1 Supply and Demand in the White Sugar Spot Market

There are several factors that influence the price of white sugar futures. The supply of white sugar is mainly from Brazil, India, and Thailand, which are the major producers of sugar in the world. The demand for white sugar is influenced by various factors, including domestic and international consumption patterns, import policies, and changes in global sugar prices.

3.2 Price Difference and Arbitrage Opportunities

The price difference between white sugar futures and spot prices is an important indicator for traders and investors. In 2021, the domestic price difference of white sugar remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0 and -400 yuan for the longest period since June 2017. This reflects the continuous period of spot discounts in the market.

4. Market Outlook

4.1 Domestic Market

In the upcoming year, the bottom of the domestic sugar price is expected to rise, and the extent of the increase will depend on import policies and international sugar prices. The current price of white sugar in the domestic market is relatively low, indicating a potential upward shift in the market.

4.2 International Market

The supply and demand outlook for the international sugar market in the 20/21 crushing season has been adjusted multiple times, but the overall supply-demand gap is relatively moderate. The estimated production for the new crushing season is 181.87 million tons, an increase of 16.37 million tons compared to the previous year. Consumption is expected to increase by 3.535 million tons, reaching 173.76 million tons. Stock levels are projected to be...